Kentucky Derby #149 is only a few days away so it’s time to take a closer look at this year’s entrants.
Hit Show
Post Position 1 (Pretender)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Manny Franco
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
After winning the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct Racetrack in February, Hit Show finished second by a nose in the Wood Memorial Stakes. While a wet track on Derby Day could move him up, the New York Road to the Kentucky Derby is not the road I’m taking. Post position #1 is dreadful.
Verifying
Post Position 2 (Contender)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Morning Line Odds: 15-1
Verifying finished second by a neck in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland Racetrack in his most recent start. The winner of the Blue Grass was Tapit Trice who will be one of the favorites in the Derby. Attracts jockey Tyler Gaffalione who will have to figure out how to not get buried down inside from post position 2.
Two Phil’s
Post Position 3 (Contender)
Trainer: Larry Rivelli
Jockey: Jareth Loveberry
Morning Line Odds: 12-1
Two Phil’s won the Jeff Ruby Steaks (not Stakes) at Turfway Park in his most recent race. Prior to the win he was second in the Lecomte Stakes and third in the Risen Star Stakes (both at The Fairgrounds). The Jeff Ruby is run on a synthetic track which generally suggests a horse is better suited for grass than dirt. I suspect Two Phil’s will be dismissed in the wagering for this reason. If you take a closer look at Two Phil’s past performances, you will see a win by 5 1/4 lengths at Churchill Downs last Fall in the Street Sense Stakes. Maybe he’s equally talented on dirt and synthetic surfaces?
Confidence Game
Post Position 4 (Pretender)
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Jockey: James Graham
Morning Line Odds: 20-1
Confidence Game enters the Kentucky Derby having not run in ten weeks. Most horses have their final Derby Prep race 4-5 weeks prior to the Derby so this is a very unconventional approach. While his last race was a win in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park in February, he might be gasping with an eighth of a mile to go. He has four previous starts at Churchill Downs with two wins and a third so you know he likes the track.
Tapit Trice
Post Position 5 (Contender)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Luis Saez
Morning Line Odds: 5-1
Tapit Trice enters the Derby off his wins in both the Tampa Bay Derby in March and Keeneland’s Blue Grass Stakes in April. Along with Forte, Tapit Trice gives trainer Todd Pletcher another legitimate contender. He’s bred to run all day so the Derby’s mile and a quarter should not be an issue. His running style may be problematic as he tends to come from well back which can be a challenge in a 20 horse field.
Kingsbarns
Post Position 6 (Pretender)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Morning Line Odds: 12-1
Kingsbarns is a lightly raced horse (three lifetime starts) entering the Derby. After breaking his maiden at Gulfstream Park in January, he shipped to Tampa to win an allowance race at Tampa Bay Downs in February. In his third start he went wire to wire winning the March 25th Louisiana Derby in a rather slow final time. I anticipate he will be one of the early pacesetters in the Kentucky Derby but will not have it as easy as he did in the Louisiana Derby.
Reincarnate
Post Position 7 (Pretender)
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Jockey: John Velazquez
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
Reincarnate finished third in the Arkansas Derby in his final Derby Prep. He also finished third in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, a prep to the Arkansas Derby. His only stakes win was the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita in January. His sire is Good Magic, an up and coming son of Curlin so the distance of the Derby should not be a problem.
Mage
Post Position 8 (Contender)
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Morning Line Odds: 15-1
Mage gave likely Derby favorite Forte all he could handle in the Florida Derby in April. With an eighth of a mile to go it looked like Mage would win the race, only to be collared late by Forte. Like Kingsbarns, Mage enters the Derby having only three lifetime starts. Must break alertly or will find himself with a lot to do in a 20 horse field.
Skinner
Post Position 9 (Contender)
Trainer: John Sherriffs
Jockey: Juan Hernandez
Morning Line Odds: 20-1
Skinner was the last horse to make the Derby field after an injury to Wild on Ice. In his most recent start, he finished third in the Santa Anita Derby to Practical Move. Prior to the Santa Anita Derby he was third in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita as well. While his only win was his maiden victory, his Santa Anita Derby finish might be better than it looked. He ran wide most of the race and only lost by a length.
Practical Move
Post Position 10 (Contender)
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Jockey: Ramon Vasquez
Morning Line Odds: 10-1
Practical Move enters the Derby off his win in the Santa Anita Derby in April. He also won the San Felipe Stakes in March, a prep for the Santa Anita Derby. He’s the strongest Derby entrant from California this year and has posted back to back 100 Beyer Speed figures.
Disarm
Post Position 11 (Pretender)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
Disarm needed to run in the Lexington Stakes on April 3 to gain the necessary qualifying points to make the Derby field. While he’s in the field, the question is did the Lexington take too much out of him so close to the running of the Kentucky Derby? Prior to finishing third in the Lexington Stakes he came second in the Louisiana Derby at The Fairgrounds in March.
Jace’s Road
Post Position 12 (Pretender)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Morning Line Odds: 15-1
Jace’s Road is one of trainer Brad Cox’s four entrants in this year’s Kentucky Derby. In his final Derby Prep he finished third in the Louisiana Derby at The Fairgrounds. Prior to the Louisiana Derby he won the Gun Runner Stakes at The Fairgrounds last December. Both of his races last Fall at Churchill Downs were mediocre.
Sun Thunder
Post Position 13 (Pretender)
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr.
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
Sun Thunder has been competitive in his Derby Prep races but not competitive enough to be a serious threat to win. He finished fourth in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park, second in the Risen Star Stakes at The Fairgrounds, fifth in the Louisiana Derby at The Fairgrounds and fourth in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland.
Angel of Empire
Post Position 14 (Contender)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Morning Line Odds: 8-1
Angel of Empire will likely be the shortest odds of the four horses his trainer (Brad Cox) will saddle in this year’s Derby. He won both the Risen Star Stakes at The Fairgrounds in February and the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park in April. Both races were a mile and an eighth which is an eighth of a mile shorter than the Kentucky Derby. Distance should not be an issue for Angel of Empire.
Forte
Post Position 15 (Contender)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Morning Line Odds: 3-1
Forte will be the deserving favorite in this year’s Derby. He’s the most accomplished horse in the field with six wins from seven lifetime starts and four of his wins are Grade 1 races. In addition, he was named 2 year old male champion of 2022 after his convincing win in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. While his most recent win in the 2023 Florida Derby may not have been his most convincing, he won. Eclipse Award Winning Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. adds to his appeal.
Raise Cain
Post Position 16 (Pretender)
Trainer: Ben Colebrook
Jockey: Geraldo Corrales
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
Raise Cain won the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct Racetrack in March. While the Gotham is a prep for Aqueduct’s Wood Memorial Stakes, Raise Cain’s connections chose to run in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. He ran fifth in the Bluegrass Stakes, losing by 10 lengths.
Derma Sotogake (JPN)
Post Position 17 (Pretender)
Trainer: Hidetaka Otonashi
Jockey: Christophe Lemaire
Morning Line Odds: 10-1
Horses from Japan have been winning races on some of the biggest stages (Dubai World Cup, Breeders’s Cup) over the last few years. Derma Sotogake enters the Derby off his win in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Derby in March. The UAE Derby is a race which hasn’t had success producing Kentucky Derby Winners. Until that trend changes, I’m looking elsewhere for the winner.
Rocket Can
Post Position 18 (Contender)
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
Rocket Can ran second to Forte in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park in February. He followed that up with a fourth place finish in the Arkansas Derby in April. I like the fact he seems to have an affinity for Churchill Downs with a win and a second last Fall. He was on my short list of potential winners but the addition of blinkers in the Derby concerns me. He may be good enough to win though.
Lord Miles
Post Position 19 (Pretender)
Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.
Jockey: Paco Lopez
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
Lord Miles qualified for the Derby with his shocking win at 59-1 odds in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct Racetrack in April. A Wood Memorial Winner has not won the Kentucky Derby since Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000. If my math is correct that was 23 years ago. No thanks.
Continuar
Post Position 20 (Pretender)
Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi
Jockey: Ryusei Sakaj
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
Continuar is one of two entrants in this year’s Derby from Japan. He ran third in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Derby in his most recent start. The UAE Derby was won by the other Japanese entrant, Derma Sotogake. It’s tough to select a horse who won the UAE Derby to win the Kentucky Derby, let alone a horse who ran third in the race.
On paper the most accomplished horse in this year’s Kentucky Derby is Forte and he will go off the betting favorite. I’m going to try and beat him with Angel of Empire (8-1) and Skinner (20-1). Angel of Empire is coming off wins at a mile and an eighth in the Risen Star Stakes and the Arkansas Derby. Skinner was most recently third by a 1/2 length in the Santa Anita Derby. Racing wide and getting bumped twice in the race may have been the difference between winning and coming third.
Remember, bet with your head, not over it!