This year’s rendition of the Kentucky Derby is the 150th “Run For The Roses”! Besides the historical aspect of this year’s Derby, a couple of very talented horses are not running due to the ban of their trainer (Bob Baffert) from running horses at Churchill Downs. The ban was the result of a Baffert horse (Medina Spirit) testing positive for a prohibited drug after winning the 2021 Kentucky Derby. Regardless of how the drug made its way into the horse’s system, Churchill Downs decided a positive drug test is a positive drug test and administered the ban.
Here’s the field for Kentucky Derby 150:
#1
Dornoch
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Jockey: Luis Saez
M/L Odds: 20-1
Pretender
Dornoch most recently ran a distant fourth, losing to Sierra Leone by 6 1/2 lengths in the Blue Grass Stakes. He beat Sierra Leone in the Remsen Stakes as a 2 year old in 2023 but hasn’t continued to develop as a 3 year old. Drawing post position #1 will require him to leave the starting gate quickly and be part of the early pace. The last horse to win the Derby from post position #1 was Ferdinand in 1986. Dornoch’s brother (Mage) won last year’s Kentucky Derby.
#2
Sierra Leone
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
M/L Odds: 3-1
Contender
Sierra Leone enters the Derby off a 1 1/2 length win in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland Racecourse. While Sierra Leone delayed the start of the race by refusing to enter the starting gate, he was just fine once the race began. His running style is to come from far off the pace with a very strong closing kick. That running style can often be problematic in a 20 horse field as it requires avoiding traffic. Of this year’s Derby prep races, the Blue Grass probably had the most competitive field. One of two entrants trained by Chad Brown who is seeking his first Kentucky Derby win.
#3
Mystik Dan
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
M/L Odds: 20-1
Pretender
Mystik Dan most recently ran third in the Arkansas Derby, losing to a Bob Baffert trainee (Muth) who is not eligible to run in the Derby. Prior to the Arkansas Derby, he won the Southwest Stakes which is a prep for the Arkansas Derby. His win in the Southwest Stakes was on a very sloppy track so rain on Derby Day could improve his chances.
#4
Catching Freedom
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Flavien Prat
M/L Odds: 8-1
Contender
Catching Freedom enters the Derby off a one length win in the Louisiana Derby. The Louisiana Derby is 1 3/16th’s miles which is the longest of any of the Derby prep races. With his come from behind victory, Catching Freedom looks like a horse who won’t have a problem with the Derby’s distance of a mile and a quarter. He will be one of two Derby starters for trainer Brad Cox.
#5
Catalytic
Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
M/L Odds: 30-1
Pretender
Catalytic ran second to Fierceness in the Florida Derby in March. The good news is he ran well in his first attempt running a route of ground (1 1/8th miles) but the bad news is he lost by 13 1/2 lengths. He will be one of the longer shots in the Derby, despite coming out of a race (Florida Derby) which has produced more Derby winners than any other prep race.
#6
Just Steel
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Keith Asmussen
M/L Odds: 20-1
Pretender
Just Steel enters the Derby off eleven prior starts which is the most of any entrant this year. He is trained by Hall of Fame Trainer, D. Wayne Lukas who has won the Kentucky Derby four times. Just Steel ran in all four Derby prep races at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas, coming in second in the Smarty Jones Stakes, second in the Southwest Stakes, seventh in the Rebel Stakes and second in the Arkansas Derby. He has run well at Churchill Downs with a win and a third in two starts.
#7
Honor Marie
Trainer: Whit Beckman
Jockey: Ben Curtis
M/L Odds: 20-1
Contender
Honor Marie has run very consistently in all five lifetime starts. After winning the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Down in November 2023, he finished fifth in the Risen Star Stakes and second in the Louisiana Derby, both at The Fairgrounds in New Orleans. He is trained by Whit Beckman who was an Assistant Trainer to Chad Brown before going out on his own. Honor Marie has an affinity for Churchill Downs having two wins and a second in three starts.
#8
Just A Touch
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
M/L Odds: 10-1
Contender
Just A Touch most recently ran second in the Blue Grass Stakes to Sierra Leone. At the top of the stretch, it looked like Just A Touch was the winner but was passed late. It’s possible he simply got tired as the Blue Grass Stakes was his first race around two turns and only his third career start. He’s a son of Justify who won the Triple Crown (Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, Belmont Stakes) in 2018.
#10
T O Password
Trainer: Daisuke Takayanagi
Jockey: Kimura Kazushi
M/L Odds: 30-1
Pretender
T O Password is one of two Derby entrants this year from Japan. Most recently, he won the Fukuryu Stakes in Japan by a head. Historically, horses from Japan have not been competitive and T O Password will ensure this trend continues.
#11
Forever Young
Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi
Jockey: Ryusei Sakai
M/L Odds: 10-1
Pretender
Forever Young is being touted as having the “best chance of any Japanese horse to ever run in the Kentucky Derby”. That may very well be, but he enters the Derby off a win in the United Arab Emirates Derby in Dubai. None of the previous thirteen winners of the United Arab Emirates Derby have come first, second or third in the Kentucky Derby. He enters the Derby undefeated but I’m not jumping on the Forever Young bandwagon.
#12
Track Phantom
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Joel Rosario
M/L Odds: 12-1
Pretender
Track Phantom seems to always run his race which means speeding to the front when the starting gate opens. In his last race he finished fourth in the Arkansas Derby after setting moderate fractions. His trainer has decided to add blinkers for the Kentucky Derby which will almost ensure he will be part of the early pace. I don’t think he wants anything to do with a mile and a quarter.
#13
West Saratoga
Trainer: Larry Demeritte
Jockey: Jesus Castanon
M/L Odds: 50-1
Pretender
West Saratoga enters the Derby off a second place finish in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (not Stakes) at Turfway Park in Northern Kentucky. Whereas the winner of the Jeff Ruby Steaks appears to be better suited for synthetic or turf racing, West Saratoga has been competitive on dirt. He ran second in two of the Derby prep races at Tampa Bay Downs (Sam F. Davis and Pasco Stakes). In addition, he has shown an affinity for Churchill Downs running second twice and winning the Iroquois Stakes in September 2023.
#14
Endlessly
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
M/L Odds: 30-1
Pretender
The owners of Endlessly are a good example of what happens when you catch “Derby Fever”. While the horse qualified for the Derby off his win in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (not Stakes) at Turfway Park, he’s clearly most competitive when racing on synthetic or grass surfaces. Despite this, he’s running in the Derby which I can only surmise is the result of the “fever”.
#15
Domestic Product
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
M/L Odds: 30-1
Contender
The “second” Chad Brown entrant in this year’s Derby is coming off a win in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 9. While a two month layoff heading into the Kentucky Derby is probably not ideal, he will be ridden by jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. Nobody is better than Junior so don’t ignore Domestic Product simply because of the layoff. Prior to the Tampa Bay Derby, Domestic Product ran second in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park in February. A lightly raced entrant who should have no trouble with the Derby distance.
#16
Grand Mo The First
Trainer: Victor Barbosa
Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo
M/L Odds: 50-1
Pretender
While Grand Mo The First accumulated the points necessary to make the Derby field, he’s not been very competitive. His most recent race was third to Fierceness in the Florida Derby, losing by 16 lengths. I can’t get excited about his chances.
#17
Fierceness
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
M/L Odds: 5/2
Contender
Fierceness will likely be the betting favorite in this year’s Derby. He’s coming off a convincing 13 1/2 length win in the Florida Derby which was a record margin of victory for the race. While the Florida Derby win was visually impressive, I’m not sure he beat much. He possesses tactical speed which is valuable in a field (20 horses) as bulky as the Derby.
#18
Stronghold
Trainer: Phil D’Amato
Jockey: Antonio Fresu
M/L Odds: 20-1
Pretender
Stronghold won the Santa Anita Derby by a neck to qualify for the Derby. This year’s Santa Anita Derby (Santa Anita Park) and Wood Memorial (Aqueduct Racetrack) may have been the weakest of all the Derby prep races. Prior to winning the Santa Anita Derby, Stronghold won the Sunland Park Derby in New Mexico. He enters the Derby with three wins and three seconds from six lifetime starts so he knows where the finish line is. His running style is to lay off the early pace which should help in the Derby.
#19
Resilience
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
M/L Odds: 20-1
Pretender
Resilience is trained by Hall of Fame Trainer Bill Mott who was Trainer of the Year in 2023. The addition of blinkers made all the difference when he won the Wood Memorial Stakes to punch his ticket to Louisville. He is very lightly raced (three starts) but seems to be figuring things out at the right time. Resilience’s jockey in the Wood Memorial was Johnny Velasquez who is also Fierceness’s jockey which is who he chose to ride in the Derby. The Wood Memorial field was suspect and the last horse to win the Wood Memorial and Kentucky Derby was Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000. Let me do the math for you, that was 24 years ago.
#20
Society Man
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Jockey: Frankie Dettori
M/L Odds: 50-1
Pretender
Society Man is trainer Danny Gargan’s “other horse” with Dornoch getting more attention. He ran second in the Wood Memorial to Resilience, losing by 2 1/4 lengths. The Wood Memorial had two horses who were heavily bet and everyone else was a longshot. That includes Society Man who went off at odds of 106-1. He might very well go off at similar odds in the Derby.
#21
Epic Ride
Trainer: John Ennis
Jockey: Adam Beschizza
M/L Odds: 70-1
Pretender
Epic Ride was the last horse to gain entry into this year’s Derby. He drew into the race on Tuesday when Encino was scratched due to a training injury. In his most recent race, Epic Ride ran third in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland Racecourse. Prior to the Bluegrass Stakes, he had never run on the dirt. I’m not interested in a horse who’s second career start on dirt is the Kentucky Derby.
I like Fierceness or Just A Touch to win Derby #150.
I don’t think Fierceness had much competition in the Florida Derby which partially explains his winning margin. Winning margin aside, he ran a very good race. He has a stalking style which fits the Derby. I anticipate him running behind the early leaders and making his winning move when they begin to tire at the top of the stretch.
Just a Touch is lightly raced and may be peaking at the right time. He ran second to Sierra Leone in the Bluegrass Stakes while going around two turns for the first time. The Bluegrass Stakes should have provided a good foundation for Just A Touch to get the Derby distance.