I just returned from Kentucky and can confirm Derby Fever has broken out throughout the Commonwealth! In what looks like a very competitive race, twenty 3 year old colts have been entered for this year’s 148th renewal of The Kentucky Derby.
As is customary, I will break down the field by “contenders” and “pretenders” for your reading pleasure. A “contender” is a horse I think has a legitimate shot to win the “Run for the Roses”. A “pretender” is a horse who will have an excellent view of how the race was won. At the top of the long Churchill Downs stretch the “contenders” will be well in front of the “pretenders”.
Post Position #1
Mo Donegal (Contender)
Morning Line Odds 10-1
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Mo Donegal is one of the horses who should have no problem getting the mile and a quarter distance of the Derby. He’s bred to run all day and his win in the Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct was impressive. Pletcher has won the Kentucky Derby twice so he knows how to get a horse to peak on the First Saturday in May. Eclipse Award winning jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. will have to use all his ability to overcome post position #1.
Post Position #2
Happy Jack (Pretender)
Morning Line Odds 30-1
Trainer: Doug O’Neil
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Happy Jack took the California path to the Kentucky Derby running third in both the San Felipe Stakes and Santa Anita Derby. While he may have run third in both races, it was a distant third.
Post Position #3
Epicenter (Contender)
Morning Line Odds 7-2
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Epicenter will likely vie for favoritism in this year’s Derby as he’s one of the more accomplished entrants. He took the Louisiana route to the Kentucky Derby, winning both the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Race Course. A win in the Derby would be the first for trainer Steve Asmussen who has won more than 9,700 races in his training career. Epicenter broke his maiden at Churchill Downs in the Fall of 2021 so he likes the surface.
Post Position #4
Summer Is Tomorrow (Pretender)
Morning Line Odds 30-1
Trainer: Bhupat Seemar
Jockey: Mickael Barzalona
Summer is Tomorrow ran second in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Derby to Crown Pride. I don’t like the winner of the UAE Derby, so it’s hard to like the chances of the horse who ran second.
Post Position #5
Smile Happy (Contender)
Morning Line Odds 20-1
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Jockey: Corey Lanerie
Smile Happy was a very good two year old who won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs so you know he likes the track. It seems like other horses in the Derby have continued to develop as 3 year olds more so than Smile Happy. In his most recent race he ran second in the Blue Grass Stakes to Zandon. One of two starters for trainer Ken McPeek in this year’s Derby.
Post Position #6
Messier (Contender)
Morning Line Odds 8-1
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Jockey: John Velasquez
Messier is the second Derby entrant formerly trained by Bob Baffert. He most recently ran second in the Santa Anita Derby to his stablemate Taiba. Messier was favored in the Santa Anita Derby and will be bet in the Kentucky Derby.
Post Position #7
Crown Pride (Japan) (Pretender)
Morning Line Odds 20-1
Trainer: Koichi Shintani
Jockey: Christophe Lemaire
Crown Pride is in the field as a result of winning the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Derby at a distance of a mile and three sixteenths. While residents of Japan will be excited to see him run, previous UAE Derby winners have not run well in the Derby. I won’t be wagering on Crown Pride but I do intend to enjoy sushi at the Derby Party I’m attending.
Post Position #8
Charge It (Contender)
Morning Line Odds 20-1
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Luis Saez
Charge It ran a troubled, fast closing second in the Florida Derby to White Abarrio. He hit the starting gate at the break and wandered throughout the stretch run of the Florida Derby due to his lack of racing experience. He’s one of two Derby starters for Pletcher and the mile and a quarter will not be a problem. Charge It has only three lifetime starts.
Post Position #9
Tiz The Bomb (Pretender)
Morning Line Odds 30-1
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr.
Tiz The Bomb appears better suited racing on turf or a synthetic track. His ticket to the Derby was the result of winning the Jeff Ruby Steaks (Stakes) at Turfway Park on a synthetic track.
Post Position #10
Zandon (Contender)
Morning Line Odds 3-1
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Zandon might be the horse that provides trainer Chad Brown his first Kentucky Derby win. He was an accomplished 2 year old who has continued to develop as a 3 year old. He weaved through traffic to win the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland Race Course rallying from last place. While a similar run in the Kentucky Derby would be challenging, he showed as a 2 year old he can break alertly and put himself closer to the pace.
Post Position #11
Pioneer of Medina (Pretender)
Morning Line Odds 30-1
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Joe Bravo
One of three horses in the field trained by Todd Pletcher. He drew into the Derby due to the last minute decision of Trainer Chad Brown not to run Early Voting. Pioneer of Medina ran fourth in the Risen Star Stakes and third in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans.
Post Position #12
Taiba (Pretender)
Morning Line Odds 12-1
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Jockey: Mike Smith
Taiba is one of two horses formerly trained by Bob Baffert who will run in the Derby. With Baffert banned from running horses in Derby #148 by Churchill Downs, the owner of Taiba transferred training of the horse to Yakteen. While Yakteen has never won the Derby, jockey Mike Smith has won the race five times. Taiba is lightly raced (three lifetime starts) and most recently won the Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park. Winning the Derby against 19 horses is far different than winning the Santa Anita Derby against 5 opponents. No horse with three starts prior to the Derby has won the race since 1883.
Post Position #13
Simplification (Pretender)
Morning Line Odds 20-1
Trainer: Antonio Sano
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Simplification ran well in all three Kentucky Derby prep races (Second in the Holy Bull Stakes, First in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and Third in the Florida Derby) at Gulfstream Park. He will be near the lead early in the Derby but I don’t see him in the picture late.
Post Position #14
Barber Road (Pretender)
Morning Line Odds 30-1
Trainer: John Ortiz
Jockey: Relu Gutierrez
Barber Road took the Arkansas route to the Kentucky Derby, competing in all four qualifying races (Second in the Smarty Jones Stakes, Second in the Southwest Stakes, Third in the Rebel Stakes and second in the Arkansas Derby).
Post Position #15
White Abarrio (Contender)
Morning Line Odds 10-1
Trainer: Saffie Joseph
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
White Abarrio enters the Derby off wins in the Holy Bull Stakes and Florida Derby. In recent years, the Florida Derby has been a race which has produced several Kentucky Derby Winners. He has the right running style as he can lay off the early pace but the Derby distance may be problematic.
Post Position #16
Cyberknife (Contender)
Morning Line Odds 20-1
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Cyberknife is an improving horse who won the Arkansas Derby. Brad Cox trained the “official” winner of last year’s Kentucky Derby (Mandaloun) after Medina Spirit failed a post race drug test and was disqualified. The distance of the Derby should not be a problem.
Post Position #17
Classic Causeway (Pretender)
Morning Line Odds 30-1
Trainer: Brian Lynch
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Classic Causeway won the Sam F. Davis Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs. He then ran poorly in the Florida Derby and his connections decided to pass on the Kentucky Derby. At the last minute, his owners had a change of heart and decided to give the Derby a shot. I think they would have been better off passing on the Derby as his running style is to be on the lead and he will have plenty of company.
Post Position #18
Tawny Port (Pretender)
Morning Line Odds 30-1
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Ricardo Santana, Jr.
Tawny Port won the Lexington Stakes on April 16th at Keeneland Race Course which was the last qualifying race on the 2022 Trail to the Kentucky Derby. The Kentucky Derby will be run three weeks after the Lexington Stakes which is a quick turnaround for Tawny Port. One of three Derby entrants for trainer Brad Cox.
Post Position #19
Zozos (Pretender)
Morning Line Odds 20-1
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Manny Franco
Zozos is one of three Brad Cox trainees in this year’s Derby. Zozos is lightly raced and ran second in the Louisiana Derby.
Post Position #20
Ethereal Road (Pretender)
Morning Line Odds 30-1
Trainer: D. Wayne Lucas
Jockey: Luis Contreras
Ethereal Road ran second in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park and then off the board in the Blue Grass Stakes and Lexington Stakes at Keeneland Race Course. His form is heading in the wrong direction and appears to be a horse whose owner’s want to be able to say “we ran a horse in the Kentucky Derby. He was the last horse in the Derby as a result of a foot injury to Un Ojo.
The combination of traffic in a bulky twenty horse field, a distance none of the horses have ever run and many entrants having limited racing experience makes the Derby a challenging race to handicap. If the weather forecast in Louisville is accurate you may have to add a muddy track into the equation as well!
All these handicapping challenges aside, I like Zandon and Messier. While Zandon closed from the clouds in his Blue Grass Stakes win, he has broken from the gate more alertly in other races. Jockey Flavien Prat is one of the best in the business and I expect him to have Zandon midpack and ready to close into an early pace scenario that looks like it will be fast.
Messier is a multiple graded stakes winner and despite coming second in the Santa Anita Derby, he will be overlooked in the wagering. I see him on or near the lead and with a reasonable pace he could take them all the way similar to his impressive win in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park.