The field is set for Kentucky Derby #147 to be run this Saturday. Twenty horses will line up in a new, custom made, 20 stall starting gate to “Run for the Roses”. The new starting gate replaces what were previously two starting gates attached to accommodate the bulky Derby field.
This year’s Kentucky Derby will have its customary “contenders” and “pretenders”. Contenders are horses with a legitimate chance of winning and pretenders are horses whose owners are dreamers!
Let’s take a look at this year’s competitors in post position order from the rail (Post Position #1) to the entrant furthest to the outside (Post Position #20) with Morning Line Odds.
Known Agenda (6-1) Todd Pletcher
Contender
Post Position 1
Known Agenda is probably trainer Todd Pletcher’s most accomplished horse of his four starters in this year’s Kentucky Derby. After winning the Florida Derby on March 27, Pletcher said he would train Known Agenda up to the Derby. The horse is owned by St. Elias Stable who won the Derby in 2017 as one of the owners of Always Dreaming. He will be ridden by Irad Ortiz who won the Eclipse Award in 2020 as the best jockey in North America. He has two wins in two starts since adding blinkers. I really liked Known Agenda to win this year’s Derby until he drew post position #1.
Like the King (50-1) Wesley Ward
Pretender
Post Position 2
Like the King was the upset winner of the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park on March 27. Going off as the fourth betting choice at odds of 7-1, Like the King ranged up on the outside to win the “Ruby” by a length. The “Ruby” is run on a synthetic track which makes Like the King’s form transfer to the dirt at Churchill Downs problematic. His form has the look of a synthetic track or turf specialist. As much as I enjoy a good Jeff Ruby steak when I am in Cincinnati or Louisville, he’s not the likely winner of this years’s Derby!
Brooklyn Strong (50-1) Danny Velasquez
Pretender
Post Position 3
Brooklyn Strong was the last horse to gain entry into this year’s Derby field after several last minute defections. He qualified based on points he earned over the Winter while racing in Kentucky Derby qualifier races at Aqueduct Racetrack in New York. His most recent workout before the Derby was at Philadelphia Park in Pennsylvania. He probably should have stayed in Philadelphia as he’s going to find the water is deep in Louisville.
Keepmeinmind (50-1) Robertino Diodoro
Pretender
Post Position 4
Keepmeinmind is a horse who ran extremely well as a 2 year old but has not been able to duplicate his form as a 3 year old. In his two 2021 starts he ran fifth in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park and sixth in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland Racecourse. Neither race was inspiring. With that said, he has a win and a second from two starts at Churchill Downs, one of the wins in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in November. Two of his second place finishes as a 2 year old were to Essential Quality who will be the Derby favorite.
Sainthood (50-1) Todd Pletcher
Pretender
Post Position 5
Sainthood has the lightest resume of the four Pletcher entrants in this year’s Kentucky Derby with only three lifetime starts. He ran second to Like the King in the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park, losing by a length. Sainthood ran into traffic trouble in the “Ruby” or most likely would have won the race.
O Besos (20-1) Greg Foley
Pretender
Post Position 6
O Besos most recently ran third in the Louisiana Derby on March 20, losing by 2 lengths. He is a deep closer who will be coming from the back of the pack. If a speed duel develops in the Derby, it will benefit O Besos. The challenge for deep closers in the Derby is potential traffic in a 20 horse field. The Louisiana Derby was run at 1 and 3/16th’s miles which is only a 1/16th of a mile shorter than the distance of the Kentucky Derby. He looks like a horse who won’t have a problem with the distance of the Derby.
Mandaloun (15-1) Brad Cox
Contender
Post Position 7
Mandaloun is one of two Derby entrants for Brad Cox. Cox is a very good trainer who won the Eclipse Award for leading trainer in North America in 2020. His most recent race was a very dull 6th in the Louisiana Derby where he went off the betting favorite and lost by 11 lengths. Cox was perplexed by Mandaloun’s performance in the Louisiana Derby as he had won the Risen Star Stakes at The Fairgrounds prior to the Louisiana Derby. You will need to overlook the Louisiana Derby and focus on the fact Mandaloun has won at Churchill Downs which is always helpful.
Medina Spirit (15-1) Bob Baffert
Pretender
Post Position 8
At the beginning of 2021 trainer Bob Baffert had what many people believed were two of the leading candidates to win the Kentucky Derby. After Life is Good got injured and Concert Tour ran poorly in the Arkansas Derby, Baffert is down to Medina Spirit in the Derby. On paper he is clearly Baffert’s third string. With that said, Medina Spirit ran second in the Santa Anita Derby and Baffert knows how to get a horse into the Winner’s Circle in the Kentucky Derby. Should be on or near the early lead.
Hot Rod Charlie (8-1) Doug O’Neil
Contender
Post Position 9
Hot Rod Charlie won the Louisiana Derby on March 20 by 2 lengths. He shipped into Louisiana from California and is one of a handful of talented West Coast based 3 year old colts. He was ridden by jockey Joel Rosario in the Louisiana Derby. Since the Louisiana Derby, Rosario indicated he would ride Concert Tour for Bob Baffert in the Kentucky Derby. When Baffert decided not to run Concert Tour in the Derby, Rosario picked up the mount on Rock Your World.
Midnight Bourbon (20-1) Steve Asmussen
Contender
Post Position 10
Midnight Bourbon is one of two horses in this year’s Derby trained by Steve Asmussen. In his most recent start, Midnight Bourbon finished second in the Louisiana Derby, losing by 2 lengths. Prior to the Louisiana Derby he was third in the Risen Star Stakes and won the Lecomte Stakes, both run at The Fairgrounds as well.
Dynamic One (20-1) Todd Pletcher
Contender
Post Position 11
Dynamic One most recently ran a hard luck second in the Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct Racetrack on April 3. After taking the lead at the top of the stretch, Dynamic One was caught at the finish line by Bourbonic and lost by a head. Bourbonic is also trained by Pletcher and is running in the Derby. One of Dynamic One’s owners is St. Elias Stables who also have Known Agenda in the Derby. It’s been a long time since the winner of the Wood Memorial has won the Kentucky Derby.
Helium (50-1) Trainer: Mark Casse
Pretender
Post Position 12
Helium is one of two horses in the field that is trained by Mark Casse. Helium most recently won the Tampa Bay Derby on March 6 at Tampa Bay Downs by 3/4’s of a length. It will have been 8 weeks since Helium’s last race which is quite awhile. It’s possible the owner got too close to helium when he decided to enter his horse in the Derby!
Hidden Stash (50-1) Vicki Oliver
Pretender
Post Position 13
Hidden Stash was most recently a “non threatening” fourth in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland Racecource, losing by ten lengths. The Bluegrass was a two horse race and Hidden stash wasn’t one of the two. Jim Boeheim (Syracuse Men’s Basketball Coach) is one of the owners of Hidden Stash. He just doesn’t appear to be good enough to win.
Essential Quality (2-1) Brad Cox
Contender
Post Position 14
Essential Quality is the morning line favorite (2-1) for this year’s Derby and will likely be the favorite at race time. He’s undefeated (5 for 5) and was named North American Champion 2 Year Old Colt in 2020. After winning the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park in March, Essential Quality won the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland Racecourse on April 3 by a neck. He is owned by Godolphin Stables which is the racing and breeding operation of Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum. Essential Quality won his first race at Churchill Downs in September 2020 so he is familiar with the track. As if his odds were not low enough already, a furniture store owner in Texas plans on wagering $2 million on Essential Quality to win. The wager is a hedge to cover his liability for a mattress promotion he ran where any mattress purchase valued at over $3,000 would be free if the Kentucky Derby favorite wins.
Rock Your World (5-1) John Sadler
Contender
Post Position 15
Rock Your World took the lead out of the starting gate in this year’s Santa Anita Derby in California and never looked back. His wire to wire win by 4 1/4 lengths was his first win on dirt after winning his first two starts on the turf. He is a horse with a high cruising speed and will be forwardly placed.
King Fury (20-1) Ken McPeek
Contender
Post Position 16
King Fury won the Lexington Stakes on April 10 at Keeneland Racecourse to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. The Lexington is the last race on the “official” Derby Trail and is run three weeks prior to the Derby which is a quick turnaround. King Fury likes the surface at Churchill Downs having won twice there in 2020. While I don’t like the quick turnaround, I like the fact this horse will have no issues with the 1 1/4 mile distance of the Derby and has two wins at Churchill Downs.
Highly Motivated (10-1) Chad Brown
Contender
Post Position 17
Highly Motivated finished second by a neck in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland Racecourse. After leading the entire race, he was caught at the wire by Essential Quality. Prior to the Bluegrass Stakes, Highly Motivated ran third in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct Racetrack. Trainer Chad Brown has indicated he would prefer Highly Motivated not be on the lead in the Kentucky Derby.
Super Stock (30-1) Steve Asmussen
Pretender
Post Position 18
Super Stock won the Arkansas Derby by 2 1/2 lengths at Oaklawn Park on April 10. This year’s Arkansas Derby had a relatively small field and Super Stock benefited from a pace duel to win the race. He is one of two horses in this year’s Derby trained by Steve Asmussen.
Soup and Sandwich (30-1) Trainer: Mark Casse
Contender
Post Position 19
How can you not like a horse named after one of America’s favorite lunch combinations! The horse is owned by the granddaughter (Charlotte Weber) of the founder of Campbell’s Soup. Soup and Sandwich most recently ran second in the Florida Derby on March 27, losing by 2 3/4 lengths. Neither the owner, trainer or jockey has ever won the Kentucky Derby but there is a first time for everything. Should be on or near the lead early.
Bourbonic (30-1) Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Pretender
Post Position 20
Bourbonic sounds like a strange drink order (bourbon and tonic) but is actually the winner of this year’s Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct Racetrack. Last at the top of the stretch, Bourbonic swept by the other eight horses in the Wood Memorial field to win by a head at odds of 72-1. It’s one thing to pass eight horses between the top of the stretch and the finish line, it’s another to pass 19 horses. I suspect that’s what Bourbonic will have to do to win the Derby. Bourbonic will have a great view of all the other horses during the race.
I like two horses in the 147th edition of the Kentucky Derby, Rock Your World and Mandaloun.
Rock Your World looks like he will be forwardly placed and possesses speed which can be useful navigating in the large Derby field. He will be ridden by Joel Rosario who became available when Bob Baffert decided not to enter Concert Tour in the Derby. Picking up the talented Rosario was a very smart move. I would anticipate Rock Your World’s odds being about 5-1 at post time.
Mandaloun is the “forgotten” entrant in the Derby trained by Brad Cox. While his most recent race in the Louisiana Derby was a disaster, I’m willing to overlook it. He has been training well at Churchill Downs leading up to the Derby and has a win over the track (November 2020). Mandaloun’s odds at post time should be 15-1.
Good luck and enjoy Derby #147!
