The 145th running of the Kentucky Derby is this Saturday, May 4th. I just returned from Kentucky and almost every conversation I had while I was there included the question, “Who do you like in the Derby”?
Like every previous Kentucky Derby, there are horses among the twenty entrants that have a chance to win, horses that would need some things to go their way to win and horses that have no chance of winning.
Let’s take a closer look at this year’s field in post position order with their morning line betting odds.
War of Will (Post Position #1) 20-1
Won the Lecomte and Risen Star Stakes leading up to the Louisiana Derby. Unfortunately, he finished ninth in the Louisiana Derby and enters the Kentucky Derby with questions. His workouts since arriving at Churchill Downs have been very good but post position #1 is dreadful.
Tax (Post Position #2) 20-1
Ran second in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in New York behind Tacitus. The Derby field is much tougher than the horses he faced in the Wood Memorial.
By My Standards (Post Position #3) 20-1
He took the Louisiana route to the Derby. This winner of the Louisiana Derby is trying to become the first Louisiana Derby/Kentucky Derby winner since Grindstone in 1996.
Gray Magician (Post Position #4) 50-1
Ran second in the United Arab Emirates Derby to Plus Que Parfait. Since the UAE Derby winner has never won the Kentucky Derby, I feel comfortable saying the second place finisher in the UAE Derby won’t either.
Improbable (Post Position #5) 6-1
Bob Baffert’s “third stringer” ran second to Omaha Beach in the Arkansas Derby so he has ability. Many trainers would gladly trade their horse for Baffert’s “third stringer”.
Vekoma (Post Position #6) 20-1
He won the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in Kentucky to secure his position in the Derby field. Will likely be upfront as part of the early pace scenario.
Maximum Security (Post Position #7) 10-1
He went wire to wire to easily win the Florida Derby in his most recent race. I suspect he will have more “company” upfront in the Derby than he did in Florida. His speed figures are better than any of the other nineteen Derby entrants.
Tacitus (Post Position #8) 10-1
Enters the Derby after winning the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in New York. His sire is Tapit so he should have no trouble getting the 1 and 1/4 mile distance of the Derby. Of the twenty horses in the Derby he earned more qualifying points (150) than any other entrant.
Plus Que Parfait (Post Position #9) 30-1
Shipped to Dubai (United Arab Emirates) to win the UAE Derby and secure a spot in the Kentucky Derby. The UAE Derby has never produced a Kentucky Derby winner.
Cutting Humor (Post Position #10) 30-1
Enters the Kentucky Derby off a win in the Sunland Derby in New Mexico. The competition he faced in the Sunland Derby is significantly weaker than what he will face in the Kentucky Derby.
Haikal (Post Position #11) 30-1
Ran a mediocre third in the Wood Memorial won by Tacitus. He is a deep closer which is a difficult assignment in a large field like the Kentucky Derby. The Wood Memorial was his first attempt running two turns. He may simply prefer running one turn, shorter distance races.
Omaha Beach (Post Position #12) 4-1
Named after the landing site in Northern France that was part of World War II’s D-Day invasion, he took the Arkansas “route” to the Derby. His wins in both the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park are part of his current three race win streak. His most recent workout at Churchill Downs was excellent.
Code of Honor (Post Position #13) 15-1
His come from behind running style will require an honest pace in the Derby for him to close effectively. This winner of the Fountain of Youth Stakes in Florida in February has a chance.
Win Win Win (Post Position #14) 15-1
Ran second in the Blue Grass Stakes to earn a spot in the Kentucky Derby. Prior to the Blue Grass Stakes he won the Tampa Bay Derby in stakes record time.
Master Fencer (Post Position #15) 50-1
Enters the Kentucky Derby off a second place finish in the Fukuru Stakes in Japan. He earned his way into the Derby via a “Japanese Path to the Derby” created by Churchill Downs. While his presence in the Derby will generate viewer and wagering interest in Japan, he has no shot of winning.
Game Winner (Post Position #16) 5-1
One of three runners trained by Bob Baffert in this year’s Derby. He most recently ran second in the Santa Anita Derby to his stablemate Roadster. His come from behind running style could be problematic in a field with 20 entrants.
Roadster (Post Position #17) 6-1
Won the Santa Anita Derby after missing training due to two throat surgeries. He’s been a vastly improved horse since the medical procedures.
Long Range Toddy (Post Position #18) 30-1
Won the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park leading up to the Arkansas Derby. Ran poorly in the Arkansas Derby which may have been the result of a sloppy racetrack he didn’t like. He will need to return to his Rebel Stakes form to have a chance to win.
Spinoff (Post Position #19) 30-1
One of two horses in the Kentucky Derby field trained by Hall of Fame Trainer Todd Pletcher. Ran second in the Louisiana Derby in his most recent race.
Country House (Post Position #20) 30-1
Trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, he most recently ran a non-threatening third in the Arkansas Derby. He’s a horse that will like the distance of the Derby.
I like Game Winner to win Kentucky Derby #145 in what looks like a wide open race. If you are going to a neighborhood Derby Party and want to take a “stab” on a longshot, I like Country House who will go off at least 30-1.
