Kentucky Derby #152

#1
Renegade (Contender)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Morning Line Odds: 4-1
Renegade was visually impressive winning the Arkansas Derby with a big, wide sweeping move. Prior to the Arkansas Derby he ran second in the Tampa Bay Derby to The Puma. His jockey (Irad Ortiz) is “money” riding in big time stakes races and he had several options as to who he was going to ride in the Derby. While he chose Renegade, Ortiz is also 0-9 with his prior Derby runners so nothing is a sure thing. Post position #1 isn’t ideal and the last horse to win the Derby from there is Ferdinand in 1986. Is he talented enough to overcome a less than ideal post position?

#2
Albus (Pretender)
Trainer: Riley Mott
Jockey: Manny Franco
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
Having only been out on his own as a trainer for two years, Riley Mott has two starters in this year’s Derby. Many trainers have never had a horse in the Kentucky Derby so to have two is quite an accomplishment. Albus enters the Derby off a win in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct Racetrack in New York. His win was visually impressive, but I think the quality of the Wood Memorial field was suspect. The last winner of the Kentucky Derby who also won the Wood Memorial was Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000. If you don’t have a calculator handy, that’s 26 years.

#3
Intrepido (Pretender)
Trainer: Jeff Mullins
Jockey: Hector Berrios
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
Intrepido hasn’t won a race since October 2025 when he won the American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita Park. Most recently he ran a non threatening fourth in the Santa Anita Derby to So Happy.

#4
Litmus Test (Pretender)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
Litmus Test took the Oaklawn Park route to the Derby with a fourth place finish in the Rebel Stakes and most recently a seventh place finish in the Arkansas Derby. He will be putting blinkers back on for the Derby after experimenting without them in the Arkansas Derby.

#5
Right To Party (Pretender)
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Jockey: Christopher Elliott
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
The owners of Right To Party would certainly have the right to do so if he were to win the Kentucky Derby but I don’t think that’s likely. In his most recent race, he ran second to Albus in the Wood Memorial. If you don’t like Albus, you certainly won’t like Right To Party.

#6
Commandment (Contender)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Luis Saez
Morning Line Odds:6-1
Commandment enters the Kentucky Derby off a win in the Florida Derby over The Puma and Chief Wallabee. He’s a deep closer who needed the length of the stretch to win by a nose over The Puma. He’s one of three Derby starters for Trainer Brad Cox. Interesting that jockey Flavien Prat who rode Commandment in the Florida Derby chose to ride Emerging Market. The Florida Derby in recent years has produced several Kentucky Derby Winners (Mage, Sovereignty, etc.).

#7
Danon Bourbon (Pretender)
Trainer: Manabu Ikezoe
Jockey: Atsuya Nishimura
Morning Line Odds: 20-1
Danon Bourbon is one of two horses in this year’s Derby from Japan. While Japanese horses have been very competitive in major stakes races throughout the world, the Kentucky Derby has eluded them. Danon Bourbon most recently won the Fukuryu Stakes in Japan but he didn’t face the quality of horses he will face in the Derby.

#8
So Happy (Pretender)
Trainer: Mark Glatt
Jockey: Mike Smith
Morning Line Odds: 15-1
So Happy was the upset winner of the Santa Anita Derby over heavily favored Potente. Prior to the Santa Anita Derby he won the San Vicente at Santa Anita Park as well. The quality of the competition in this year’s Derby prep races in California has been sub par. His penultimate workout prior to the Kentucky Derby was quite good and he will be forwardly placed. Jockey Mike Smith has won the Kentucky Derby twice before (Giacomo and Justify) and if he wins it this year, he will be the oldest jockey (59) ever to do so.

#9
The Puma (Contender)
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Morning Line Odds: 10-1
The Puma won the Tampa Bay Derby in March and followed it up with a second place finish to Commandment in the Florida Derby. Despite not winning the Florida Derby, he may have run the best race of anyone. He lost by a nose despite running wide the entire race. He also had a less than desirable post position and broke poorly from the starting gate. His trainer and some of his owners won the 2023 Kentucky Derby with Mage.

#10
Wonder Dean (Pretender)
Trainer: Yoshinari Yamamoto
Jockey: Ryusei Sakai
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
Wonder Dean joins Danon Bourbon as Japan’s second horse in the Derby starting gate. He enters off a win in the UAE Derby (United Arab Emirates Derby). The good news is he is coming off a win, the bad news is winners of the UAE Derby are 0-15 in the Kentucky Derby.

#11
Incredibolt (Pretender)
Trainer: Riley Mott
Jockey: Jaime Torres
Morning Line Odds: 20-1
Incredibolt is one of two entrants for trainer Riley Mott. Riley Mott was an Assistant Trainer for his Father (Bill Mott) for many years. The “Mott Family” will have three starters in the Derby as his Father trains Chief Wallabee. Incredibolt enters the Kentucky Derby off a win in the Virginia Derby. The only thing the Kentucky Derby and Virginia Derby have in common is they have “Derby” in their names. The Virginia Derby is a mile in distance around one turn and the Kentucky Derby is a mile and a quarter around two turns. Big difference. To his credit, Incredibolt did win the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs last Fall so you know he likes the Churchill Downs surface.

#12
Chief Wallabee (Contender)
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Morning Line Odds: 8-1
Chief Wallabee most recently ran third in the Florida Derby to Commandment. He’s lightly raced (three lifetime starts) and is adding blinkers for the first time in the Kentucky Derby. The blinkers are intended to get him to focus, as his trainer (Bill Mott) indicated he only ran in spurts during the Florida Derby. While it isn’t unheard of, it’s unusual to see a trainer make equipment changes like adding blinkers going into a race as significant as the Kentucky Derby. In the last twenty five years, ten horses have added blinkers for the first time in the Kentucky Derby and none finished first, second or third. Chief Wallabee’s first workout with blinkers after arriving at Churchill Downs was very good.

#14
Potente (Contender)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Juan Hernandez
Morning Line Odds: 20-1
Earlier this year, it looked like Bob Baffert could have 4-5 horses in this year’s Kentucky Derby but one by one they fell off for various reasons (injury, poor performances). In the end he has two, Potente and Litmus Test. Potente enters the Derby off a second place finish to So Happy in the Santa Anita Derby. Prior to the Santa Anita Derby he won the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Racetrack. Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby six times which is more than any other trainer. Potente will show early speed but I don’t think he gets Baffert his seventh Derby victory.

#15
Emerging Market (Contender)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Morning Line Odds: 15-1
Like Bob Baffert, Chad Brown had several potential Derby starters entering 2026 and now has one entrant. Emerging Market won the Louisiana Derby in his most recent race which was his second career start. Prior to the Louisiana Derby he won a maiden race at Tampa Bay Downs in Florida. Both races were very impressive, but the Kentucky Derby has only been won once (Leonatus in 1883) by a horse with two lifetime starts. Maybe this is the year another horse with only two lifetime starts wins the Derby.

#16
Pavlovian (Pretender)
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Edwin Maldonado
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
While many of the Derby runners this year have limited starts, Pavlovian enters with ten. After winning the Sunland Derby in New Mexico, he finished second to Emerging Market in the Louisiana Derby. Pavlovian was sent to the lead in the Louisiana Derby and almost held on to win. I expect he will be forwardly placed in the Kentucky Derby as well.

#17
Six Speed (Pretender)
Trainer: Bhupat Seemar
Jockey: Mickael Barzalona
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
Six Speed spent the Winter in the United Arab Emirates where he won the UAE 2000 Guineas prior to running second in the UAE Derby to Wonder Dean. Like his name, Six Speed will show speed early in the Kentucky Derby but won’t be heard from late.

#18
Further Ado (Contender)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: John Velazquez
Morning Line Odds: 6-1
Further Ado won the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland Racecourse (Lexington, Kentucky) by 11 lengths after running second in the Tampa Bay Derby to The Puma. Further Ado also won his first career start at Keeneland by 20 lengths. It’s obvious he likes Keeneland, but some will question if he can perform as well at Churchill Downs? The answer is probably yes, as he did win the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs last Fall.

#19
Golden Tempo (Pretender)
Trainer: Cherie Devaux
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
It’s nice to see one of our trainer’s have a horse in the Derby. Cherie’s entrant spent the Winter in New Orleans where he won the Lecomte Stakes and finished third in the Risen Star Stakes and Louisiana Derby. While he was third to Emerging Market in the Louisiana Derby, it was a distant third. When he loads into the Kentucky Derby starting gate it will be six weeks since his last race. Like his brother Irad Ortiz, Jr., Jose Ortiz is looking for his first Kentucky Derby win.

#21
Great White (Pretender)
Trainer: John Ennis
Jockey: Alex Achard
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
Great White won the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes at Turfway Park on a synthetic track. Off the win, his connections decided to run him in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland where he finished a distant fifth to Further Ado. It’s clear Great White’s preferred surface is synthetic. He will be up against it in the Kentucky Derby.

#22
Ocelli (Pretender)
Trainer: Whit Beckman
Jockey: Joseph Ramos, Jr.
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
Ocelli is a maiden, having never won a race. He finished sixth in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, sixth in the Virginia Derby and third in the Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct Racetrack. He is in over his head in the Kentucky Derby.

#23 (Also Eligible)
Robusta (Pretender)
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
Robusta took the California route in terms of Kentucky Derby prep races. He finished sixth in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, second in the San Felipe Stakes and seventh in the Santa Anita Derby to So Happy. With only a maiden victory, he will be overmatched if he draws into the Derby field.

#24 (Also Eligible)
Corona de Oro
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Jockey: Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.
Morning Line Odds: 50-1
After breaking his maiden at The Fairgrounds (New Orleans) in his fourth lifetime start, Corona de Oro ran third in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland Racecourse. The Lexington is the last Kentucky Derby prep race conducted and it isn’t known for producing the winner of the Kentucky Derby. It’s highly unlikely Corona de Oro runs in the Derby and if he does, it’s even more unlikely he wins.

In what is a wide open Kentucky Derby #152, I’m going with Further Ado and Chief Wallabee in this year’s Derby. Further Ado is coming off an impressive win in the Bluegrass Stakes and had a stakes win over the Churchill Downs surface last Fall. While I’m concerned about Chief Wallabee adding blinkers for the first time in the Derby, he has turned in a couple of excellent workouts with the blinkers since arriving at Churchill Downs.