With the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby fast approaching, it’s time to take a close look at this year’s field. For those of you who are long time subscribers to racingandtasting.com, you know all 20 starters don’t have a chance of winning the Derby. As is customary, we will separate the field into “contenders” and “pretenders”. Each horse is highlighted in post position order.
Post Position #1
Citizen Bull (Pretender)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Beyer Speed Figures in Last Three Races (87-98-96)
Morning Line Odds: 20-1
Citizen Bull was named two year old champion of 2024 after winning the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile in November. Prior to finishing fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, he won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. His start in the Santa Anita Derby was only his second in 2025 and he looked like he needed the race from a conditioning perspective. I’m not sure I would completely write him off but post position #1 is dreadful in a twenty horse field.
Post Position #2
Neoequos (Pretender)
Trainer: Saffie Joseph
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Beyer Speed Figures in Last Three Races (89-91-82)
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
Neoequos ran third in the Fountain of Youth to Sovereignty and third to Tappan Street in the Florida Derby, both at Gulfstream Park. While both races are significant preps for the Kentucky Derby, Neoequos at no time was going to win either race. Last year’s (2024) Eclipse Award Winning Jockey Flavien Prat has the mount. If Baeza draws into the field, Prat will ride Baeza and Neoequos will be ridden by someone else.
Post Position #3
Final Gambit (Contender)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Luan Machado
Beyer Speed Figures in Last Three Races (90-64-66)
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
Final Gambit earned his spot in the Kentucky Derby by winning the Jeff Ruby Steaks (not Stakes) at Turfway Park. All his starts have been on grass or synthetic tracks so he will be running on dirt for the first time at Churchill Downs. He’s a deep closer who ran against a suspect field in the Jeff Ruby Steaks. Final Gambit is bred to handle the Derby distance and his recent workouts on dirt at Churchill Downs have been good.
Post Position #4
Rodriguez (Pretender)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith
Beyer Speed Figures in Last Three Races (101-90-91)
Morning Line Odds: 12-1
Rodriguez is one of two entrants (Rodriguez and Citizen Bull) in this year’s Derby for Bob Baffert. In his most recent start, he won the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct going wire to wire and received a very lofty 101 Beyer Speed Figure. He is a front runner who prefers the lead and will have company up front. The Wood Memorial Winner hasn’t won the Kentucky Derby since Fusaichi Pegasus in 1995 (30 years). On the plus side, his winning time in the Wood Memorial of 1 minute and 48.15 seconds was the fastest Kentucky Derby prep time at a mile and eighth since 2022.
Post Position #5
American Promise (Pretender)
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Nik Juarez
Beyer Speed Figures in Last Three Races (95-88-82)
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
Four time, Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer D. Wayne Lukas enters this year’s Derby with American Promise. American Promise most recently won the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs. The Virginia Derby historically has been run on the grass and this year’s edition was run on dirt for the first time. While the race was a mile and an eighth, it was only one turn, not the two turns American Promise will have to tackle in the Kentucky Derby.
Post Position #6
Admire Daytona (Pretender)
Trainer: Yukihiro Kato
Jockey: Christophe Lemaire
Beyer Speed Figures Not Available For Races in Japan
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
Admire Daytona gained entry into the Derby field via winning the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Derby by a nose. The UAE Derby is the Euro/Mideast Derby route created by Churchill Downs to attract horses from the Middle East to run in the Kentucky Derby.
Post Position #7
Luxor Cafe (Pretender)
Trainer: Noriyuki Hori
Jockey: Joao Moreira
Beyer Speed Figures Not Available For Races in Japan
Morning Line Odds: 15-1
Each year a horse from Japan qualifies for the Kentucky Derby via the “Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby”. Last year’s entrant (Forever Young) came third in the Derby, losing to Mystik Dan by a length. This year’s entrant is Luxor Cafe who won the Fukuryu Stakes by five lengths which was his fourth consecutive win. It’s difficult to assess what he beat in the Fukuryu Stakes but he won impressively. He will benefit from a track with moisture in it as he has three wins and a second out of four races on a muddy/sloppy track.
Post Position #8
Journalism (Contender)
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Beyer Speed Figures in Last Three Races (102-108-87)
Morning Line Odds: 3-1
Journalism enters the Derby off his impressive win in the Santa Anita Derby. Detractors will argue facing nineteen horses in the Kentucky Derby is very different than facing four horses in the Santa Anita Derby. With that said, Journalism overcame trouble in the Santa Anita Derby and will be the betting favorite in this year’s Kentucky Derby. He has Beyer Speed Figures of 108 at a mile and a sixteenth and most recently 102 at a mile and an eighth (Santa Anita Derby). The Derby distance will not be a problem.
Post Position #9
Burnham Square (Contender)
Trainer: Ian Wilkes
Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr.
Beyer Speed Figures in Last Three Races (96-91-90)
Morning Line Odds: 12-1
Burnham Square won the Holy Bull Stakes and finished fourth in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, both preps at Gulfstream Park for the Florida Derby. He passed on running in the Florida Derby to run in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland. After trailing most of the race, he put in a sustained run to win the Bluegrass Stakes over a talented field. While his win was visually impressive, the final time of 1 minute, 51.33 seconds was the second slowest Blue Grass since 2014. Burnham Square looks like a horse who will relish the Derby distance of a mile and a quarter. The last horse to win the Blue Grass Stakes and Kentucky Derby (Strike the Gold) was in 1991.
Post Position #10
Grande (Contender)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velasquez
Beyer Speed Figures in Last Three Races (97-97-83)
Morning Line Odds: 20-1
Grande enters the Derby off a second place effort in the Wood Memorial. While his trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Kentucky Derby twice, I’m not sure Grande is the strongest hand he’s ever had. Like several other entrants in the field, Grande is lightly raced and relatively inexperienced. His breeding says he will get a mile and a quarter and he did race very wide around both turns of the Wood Memorial.
Post Position #11
Flying Mohawk (Pretender)
Trainer: D. Whitworth Beckman
Jockey: Joseph Ramos
Beyer Speed Figures in Last Three Races (84-82-79)
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
Flying Mohawk is a turf and synthetic track specialist. His two wins are on turf and most recently he ran second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (not Stakes) on a synthetic surface. The Kentucky Derby would be his first lifetime start on dirt. His trainer is a former Assistant Trainer with Chad Brown.
Post Position #12
East Avenue (Contender)
Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Jockey: Manny Franco
Beyer Speed Figures in Last Three Races (96-74-75)
Morning Line Odds: 20-1
After an impressive 2 year old season, East Avenue kicked off his 3 year old campaign in the Risen Star Stakes at The Fairgrounds. He tired badly to lose by 22 3/4 lengths and looked like a horse who needed the race off a long layoff. In his subsequent race, he ran second in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, losing by a nose to Burnham Square. East Avenue was the favorite in last Fall’s Breeder’s Cup Juvenile won by Citizen Bull but was never a factor after stumbling out of the starting gate.
Post Position #13
Publisher (Contender)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Beyer Speed Figures in Last Three Races (95-86-81)
Morning Line Odds: 20-1
Publisher ran second in the Arkansas Derby to Sandman. He enters the Kentucky Derby as a maiden after 7 lifetime starts. I think it’s unlikely his first win will come on racing’s biggest stage. It’s interesting that he will be ridden by multiple Eclipse Award Winning Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Post Position #14
Tiztastic (Contender)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Beyer Speed Figures in Last Three Races (95-81-89)
Morning Line Odds: 20-1
Trainer Steve Asmussen has two entrants in this year’s Kentucky Derby. Both Tiztastic and Publisher have very similar running styles which is to come from well off the pace. If a speed duel develops in the Derby, both will be running late. Tiztastic is the more accomplished horse of the two and is coming off a win in the Louisiana Derby at The Fairgrounds. He has an affinity for Churchill Downs with a second in the Street Sense Stakes and a third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. He will have to find clear sailing in the twenty horse Derby field.
Post Position #15
Render Judgment (Pretender)
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Beyer Speed Figures in Last Three Races (90-83-79)
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
Render Judgment ran second in the Virginia Derby to American Promise and most recently fifth in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland to Burnham Square. While he broke his maiden at Churchill Downs, he is in over his head in the Kentucky Derby. Render Judgment’s Trainer preferred not to run but his ownership group said “we’re running”!
Post Position #16
Coal Battle (Pretender)
Trainer: Lonny Briley
Jockey: Juan Vargas
Beyer Speed Figures in Last Three Races (88-91-84)
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
Coal Battle most recently ran third in the Arkansas Derby. He entered the Arkansas Derby off wins in the Smarty Jones Stakes and Rebel Stakes, both Arkansas Derby prep races at Oaklawn Park. He can be high strung which won’t help trying to get the demanding distance of the Kentucky Derby.
Post Position #17
Sandman (Contender)
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Beyer Speed Figures in Last Three Races (99-89-92)
Morning Line Odds: 6-1
Sandman won the Arkansas Derby coming from off the pace. His sustained run was visually impressive but was helped immensely by a suicidal pace two horses set on the front end. He’s a deep closer that will need help navigating the 20 horse Derby field. The Derby will be Sandman’s fourth start at Churchill Downs which includes a third place finish behind Sovereignty and Tiztastic in last Fall’s Street Sense Stakes.
Post Position #18
Sovereignty (Contender)
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Beyer Speed Figures in Last Three Races (92-95-87)
Morning Line Odds: 5-1
Sovereignty won the Fountain of Youth Stakes and most recently was second in the Florida Derby, both at Gulfstream Park. His second in the Florida Derby was a good effort as he was quickly closing ground and looks like the distance of the Kentucky Derby will not be a problem. Sovereignty won the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs in the Fall of 2024 so you know he likes the track. Junior Alvarado will be back riding Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby. He was injured in a race at Gulfstream Park earlier this year and unable to ride in the Florida Derby.
Post Position #19
Chunk of Gold (Pretender)
Trainer: Ethan West
Jockey: Jareth Loveberry
Beyer Speed Figures in Last Three Races (92-92-75)
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
Chunk of Gold ran second in both the Risen Star Stakes and Louisiana Derby at The Fairgrounds. The distance of the Derby should not be an issue for this deep closer. He was purchased for $2,500 so will have the support of anyone who likes a “feel good story”.
Post Position #20
Owen Almighty (Pretender)
Trainer: Brian Lynch
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Beyer Speed Figures in Last Three Races (90-93-83)
Morning Line Odds: 30-1
Owen Almighty most recently ran sixth in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. Prior to the Blue Grass Stakes, he won the Tampa Bay Derby. He is the classic case of an Owner getting “Derby Fever”. Based on his poor result in the Blue Grass Stakes the plan was to bypass the Derby and run in the Pat Day Mile on Derby Day. He’s now going to run in the Derby, but I don’t see him getting a mile and a quarter.
Post Position # (First Alternate)
Baeza (Contender)
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Beyer Speed Figures in Last Three Races (101-93-87)
Morning Line Odds: 15-1
Baeza is a lightly raced maiden winner who most recently ran second to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby. What he lacks in seasoning (four lifetime starts) he makes up for from a breeding perspective. Baeza is a half brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby Winner Mage and a half brother to 2024 Belmont Stakes Winner Dornoch.
My picks for Kentucky Derby 151:
Despite not winning the Florida Derby in his most recent race, Sovereignty was closing and looks like he will appreciate the distance of the Derby. I like the fact his “regular rider” (Junior Alvarado) is back on him for the Derby and the spacing (five weeks) between the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby is perfect. He’s a closer that will need to avoid being too far back in such a large field. Hopefully he can begin to make his closing move at the top of the stretch.
Final Gambit is my second selection. He’s a deep closer who will need help navigating the Derby field. The fact he has never run on the dirt is a question mark, but his breeding suggests dirt and a mile and a quarter won’t be a problem. His lack of experience racing on dirt is certainly one of the reasons we will get 40-1 odds on him in the Derby!