Kentucky Derby 2018 is this Saturday and it may be one of the most competitive fields in years. It’s hard to believe the Road to the Kentucky which began in January has concluded and the 20 starters are completing their final preparations.
From my perspective there are 6-8 horses who could win the race and 12-14 whose owners won’t have to worry about getting the Kentucky Derby trophy through security at the Louisville Airport.
Here’s my thoughts on each starter in this year’s Kentucky Derby in post position order with their morning line odds:
(1) Firenze Fire 50-1
Post position 1 is problematic but that’s not why Firenze Fire is 50-1. He won the Jerome Stakes in New York which is a minor Derby Prep and his performance plateaued back in January.
(2) Free Drop Billy 30-1
Is a closer who comes from off the pace. One of four horses in the Derby field to have won a race at Churchill Downs.
(3) Promises Fulfilled 30-1
Will be one of the horses vying for the lead when the starting gate opens. You will hear his name early in the race but I don’t think you will hear it late.
(4) Flameaway 30-1
Ran second in two of the Derby Prep races (Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass Stakes) and is a fighter. Will be forwardly placed in the Derby.
(5) Audible 8-1
One of four starters in the race trained by Todd Pletcher. He has proven he can win on or near the lead as well as coming from off the pace. He won the Florida Derby which is a Derby Prep that has produced many Kentucky Derby Winners.
(6) Good Magic 12-1
Trained by Eclipse Award winning trainer Chad Brown,the horse is a multiple Grade 1 Winner. His most recent win was the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland which has not produced the Derby Winner in several years. He’s been training well in Kentucky since his Blue Grass Stakes win.
(7) Justify 3-1
Trained by Bob Baffert who has won the Derby four times. Justify comes into the Kentucky Derby undefeated in three starts having most recently won the Santa Anita Derby. He has been extremely impressive in all of his starts and will be the favorite. The field size in the races he won were small so it will be interesting to see how he does in a 20 horse field if he encounters any bumping or traffics problems.
(8) Lone Sailor 50-1
Another horse who tends to close from way back. In his most recent race he came second in the Louisiana Derby but was outfinished by Noble Indy. One of our horses (Woodford Racing), Campaign, ran second to Lone Sailor at Saratoga last Summer.
(9) Hofburg 20-1
A very lightly raced horse who most recently ran second in the Florida Derby. His trainer isn’t known for running a horse in the Kentucky Derby so he can say he did it. He’s been training well at Churchill Downs and is a bit intriguing.
(10) My Boy Jack 20-1
Won the Lexington Stakes in early April at Keeneland to squeak into the Derby field. He is a deep closer who will need a clear path through the stretch to win.
(11) Bolt d’Oro 8-1
A multiple Grade 1 Winner who had been getting all the press on the West Coast until Justify beat him in the Santa Anita Derby. While he is more seasoned than Justify, he had every chance to beat him in the Santa Anita Derby and couldn’t do so.
(12) Enticed 30-1
Took the New York route in the Derby Prep races, most recently winning the Gotham Stakes. He’s not particularly flashy but finds a way to win. He has won a race at Churchill Downs.
(13) Bravazo 50-1
Won the Risen Star Stakes in Louisiana but subsequently ran poorly in the Louisiana Derby. Not sure which Bravazo will show up in Louisville. He has won a race at Churchill Downs.
(14) Mendelssohn 5-1
Most recently won the United Arab Emirates Derby in Dubai by 18 lengths. The Dubai to Louisville path has been traveled many times before with no success. Mendelssohn is a talented horse who shipped from Europe to California to win the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf in October.
(15) Instilled Regard 50-1
Won the Lecomte Stakes in Louisiana in February but his form has been mediocre since.
(16) Magnum Moon 6-1
Enters the Kentucky Derby undefeated having won all four of his races. His most recent win in the Arkansas Derby was impressive although he ran erratically in the stretch. If the crowd noise bothered him in Arkansas, he might need cotton in his ears in Louisville. He is trained by Todd Pletcher and will be one of the favorites.
(17) Solomini 30-1
Considering he is trained by Bob Baffert, he is not getting much attention going into the Derby. While he has been competitive in most of his races, he did not win any of the Derby Preps.
(18) Vino Rosso 12-1
Trained by Todd Pletcher he most recently beat Enticed to win the Wood Memorial in New York. Like the Blue Grass Stakes, the Wood Memorial has not produced the Kentucky Derby Winner in many years. His jockey John Velazquez had “choices” who he wanted to ride among the four Todd Pletcher runners and chose this one.
(19) Noble Indy 30-1
Won the Louisiana Derby in March beating Lone Sailor in a very competitive race. The Louisiana Derby is not a race that normally produces the Kentucky Derby Winner. Tough post position.
(20) Combatant 50-1
Competed in all three Arkansas Prep races (Southwest Stakes, Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby) but did not win any of them. He got into the Kentucky Derby field after a couple qualifiers dropped out late. With only one win he will have is work cut out.
It seems like this year’s running of the Kentucky Derby is going to be a “first” in some way. Possibly the “first” Kentucky Derby Winner for trainer Chad Brown? Possibly the “first” time since 1882 a horse who did not run as a 2 year old wins the Kentucky Derby? Possibly the “first” time in a long time the Kentucky Derby Winner won the Wood Memorial or Blue Grass Stakes prior to the Derby? Possibly the “first” time a horse coming via Dubai wins the Kentucky Derby?
I believe this year’s Derby Winner will be Good Magic or Vino Rosso. While I recognize both horses are coming off wins in races (Blue Grass Stakes and Wood Memorial) that have not produced the Kentucky Derby Winner in recent times, that can only help to make their odds more generous!