With the 143rd running of the Kentucky Derby only a few days away, it’s time to assess this year’s field. While there will be 20 horses in the starting gate, it’s safe to say many have little chance of winning. To simplify my assessment, I have segmented the field into “contenders” and “pretenders”. A potential “wild card” in this year’s Run for the Roses is the track condition which may be muddy due to rain in the forecast for Louisville.
Pretenders
Untrapped – Post Position #4
His last race was the Arkansas Derby where he ran 6th beaten by 5 lengths. The 1 1/4 mile distance of the Kentucky Derby will not be to his liking.
Fast and Accurate – Post Position #3
Won the Spiral Stakes in late March on a synthetic track at Turfway Park in Northern Kentucky. Prior to winning the Spiral Stakes, he won two races on the turf in Florida. Horses that run well on grass often run well on synthetic tracks so his victory at Turfway Park wasn’t a complete surprise. The Kentucky Derby will be his third consecutive stakes race with his third different jockey. Doesn’t instill confidence.
State of Honor – Post Position #6
Most recently he ran second in the Florida Derby in early April. He will likely be one of the pace setters in the Kentucky Derby. His most recent races would indicate he will be backing up when the real running starts.
Patch – Post Position #20
Ran second in the Louisiana Derby in early April. I’m not convinced the horses that went through Louisiana to get to the Kentucky Derby were anything special this year. While the fact he has one eye is an interesting story, he is very lightly raced (three lifetime starts) and lacks the foundation to win the Kentucky Derby.
Thunder Snow – Post Position #2
Won the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Derby in Dubai in late March. The UAE Derby distance of 1 3/16 miles is the longest of any Derby Prep races. While the track in Dubai is a dirt track, horses going from Dubai to Louisville have struggled. His owner (Godolphin Racing) has run in nine previous Kentucky Derby’s with nothing to show for it. He has won a race in the mud but no horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby starting from post position #2.
Girvan – Post Position #7
Won the Louisiana Derby in his last race. Since the Louisiana Derby he has been training at Churchill Downs and Keeneland Racetrack. Over the last few weeks he has been receiving treatments for a foot issue (quarter crack). It’s hard enough to win the Kentucky Derby with a horse that is 100% sound let alone one with foot problems. All four of his lifetime starts have been at The Fairgrounds in Louisiana.
Practical Joke – Post Position #19
Most recently ran second in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland Racetrack. I think the 1 1/4 mile distance of the Kentucky Derby may be further than he wants to run and post position #19 is no bargain.
Battle of Midway – Post Position #11
Ran second in the Santa Anita Derby in early April. His running style suggests he will be battling for the early lead in the Kentucky Derby which will take a toll. Very lightly raced with only four lifetime starts but he has won a race in the mud.
Tapwrit – Post Position #16
Won the Tampa Bay Derby in March and most recently ran 5th in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland Racetrack. I would have preferred to see him run 5th in the Tampa Bay Derby and win the Bluegrass Stakes. He has won a race in the mud.
Irap – Post Position #9
He went wire to wire winning the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland Racetrack in his most recent race. Prior to his win in the Bluegrass he had not won a race. I suspect he will be be vying for the early lead in the Kentucky Derby along with others. Having company early on the lead in the Kentucky Derby is not a good thing.
Hence – Post Position #8
Won the Sunland Derby in New Mexico in late March. His sire (father) is Street Boss whose offspring tend to be horses that like to run on the lead. I suspect he will be one of the front runners in the Kentucky Derby and won’t be around in the latter stages of the race. He has won a race in the mud.
Gunnevera – Post Position #10
Ran 3rd in the Florida Derby in early March. He is a deep closer who will be in the back of the field early in the race. His closing style lends itself better to races where there are not 20 horses. He will likely need to navigate a lot of traffic to win. He is one of the more seasoned runners with nine lifetime starts entering the Kentucky Derby and has run second in a race in the mud.
Sonneteer – Post Position #12
He is another horse that will be closing from the back of the field. Too many things have to go right to win the Kentucky Derby with his running style. His ten lifetime starts are the most of any horse in the field and he enters the race with no wins.
Lookin at Lee – Post Position #1
Was 3rd most recently in the Arkansas Derby after a rough start and only lost by 1 1/2 lengths. He is a closer who won’t be as far back as many of the deep closers. Although he ran second in a race in the mud at Churchill Downs, no horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby starting from post position #1.
Contenders
Gormley – Post Position #18
Most recently won the Santa Anita Derby in early April. His stalking running style will allow him to establish a favorable position in the Kentucky Derby. Will be ridden by Victor Espinoza who won the Kentucky Derby on American Pharoah. He has won a race in the mud.
McCraken – Post Position #15
Ran 3rd in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland Racetrack in early March. At no time during the Bluegrass Stakes was he going to win the race. He had not run for 5 weeks prior to the Bluegrass due to a foot issue and definitely needed the race from a fitness perspective. He has won three races at Churchill Downs so you know he has an affinity for the racetrack. His jockey (Brian Hernandez) had the choice of riding Girvan or McCraken and chose McCraken.
J Boys Echo – Post Position #13
Was 4th most recently in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland Racetrack. Prior to the Bluegrass he won the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct against a mediocre field. He will have an opportunity to close in the Kentucky Derby similar to how he won the Gotham Stakes. He should relish the 1 1/4 mile distance of the Kentucky Derby as his sire (father) is Mineshaft who won several route races.
Irish War Cry – Post Position #17
Won the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in his most recent race. Prior to the Wood he ran poorly in the Fountain of Youth Stakes in Florida. His running style will allow him to stalk the early leaders and make his move before the closers. Don’t let the fact he is a New Jersey bred fool you as his sire (Curlin) earned $10.5 million while racing.
Classic Empire – Post Position # 14
Redeemed himself winning the Arkansas Derby in mid April. Prior to the Arkansas Derby he had run poorly in Florida. The reigning 2 year old colt of the year in 2016 has proven to be quirky. He is an extremely talented horse that has won two races at Churchill Downs with one win being on a muddy track. I don’t think there were 130,000 people at Churchill Downs on either day he previously raced there and I worry the crowd at the Kentucky Derby could be his undoing.
Always Dreaming – Post Position #5
Won the Florida Derby in early April and is coming into the Kentucky Derby off a 5 week rest. He has been training well since the Florida Derby and will likely vie for favoritism with Classic Empire in the Kentucky Derby. His running style should allow him to avoid traffic trouble in the very large field.
The Kentucky Derby is always a great race to watch and this year’s edition will be no different. You often hear after the race that the “best” horse didn’t win. This can be attributed to a host of factors (drew a poor post position, ran into traffic problems due to 20 horses in field, got off to a bad start, etc.). When you consider the Derby Prep Races were won by several different horses this year it would suggest the race is wide open. That explains why I have identified six “contenders”.
Since you can’t bet all the “contenders” I have narrowed the winner down to two horses and I intend to bet both. They are Irish War Cry and McCraken.